EPA power plant rules could reduce emissions, speed up coal plant retirements

A new article in the journal Science finds that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s May 2024 rules limiting emissions from power plants could reduce U.S. power sector carbon emissions by 73 to 86 percent below 2005 levels by 2040, compared with 60 to 83 percent without the rules. 

Maxwell Brown, assistant professor of economics and business at Colorado School of Mines, was one of the article's co-authors. 

The findings, which are the results of modeling conducted by the Electric Power Resources Institute, Resources for the Future (RFF) and other institutions, represent the most detailed modeling to date on this landmark policy. The nine models used by the research team not only found notable emissions reductions, but a change in power generation: coal-fired power plants retire at quicker rates under the rules while the use of natural gas, renewables and nuclear either increases or holds steady relative to trends without the rules.  

In a range of scenarios with and without the rules, the authors find that the United States falls short of the emissions reductions needed to meet its 2030 economy-wide emissions target and its 2050 net-zero goal.  

"This work evaluates the newly-introduced Section 111 of the Clean Air Act which aims to reduce emissions from existing coal-fired and new gas-fired generators," Brown said. "Together with a group of leading energy researchers, we deployed nine state-of-the-art, engineering-economic models to simulate the impact of 111 on the future US power system. Findings indicate the new regulation reduces emissions at relatively low cost and tightens the range of potential emissions outcomes. As an energy modeler, I am proud to have worked with long-time colleagues, both at NREL and across institutions, to address emerging and salient challenges shaping our energy systems."

Read the full article at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adt5665